Posted by
Mike Bates on Tuesday, September 30, 2008 6:31:44 PM
In their quest to supply as many reasons as possible to vote for
Barack Obama, the mainstream media have expressed a particular interest
in John McCain's mortality. Last May, McCain made available more than
1,000 pages of medical records for press scrutiny. In contrast, Obama
released a one-page letter from a physician pronouncing the Democrat in
excellent health.
Now comes the Associated Press today with an article titled, "One-in-four chance McCain may not survive 2nd term." It starts:
If John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second
term, there's as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its
first woman president — Sarah Palin.
It's actuarial math.
The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a
first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds are still fairly
solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster
than Obama's, mainly because of his age.
An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized
estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for McCain,
72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of
the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health
problems.
McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in
office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a
24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama,
the firm estimates.
"Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state?
The answer is yes," says James C. Brooks, Jr., an actuary with the
firm. "They're both in outstanding health for people of their age."
If readers makes it to the nineteenth paragraph, they'll learn that there may be cause for concern in terms of Obama's health:
But Obama has a family history of cancer. His mother
died of ovarian cancer and his maternal grandfather died of prostate
cancer. Obama's PSA screening test for prostate cancer showed no sign
of abnormalities.
It seems to me that a piece focusing on the likelihood of McCain completing a second term in good health would be more appropriately timed for closer to the end of his first term in the White House.
Additionally, the headline could have, as KAIT8 in Jonesboro,
Arkansas did, more fairly titled an article with much of the same
information "Odds favor McCain completing a first term in good health."
But then, that wouldn't have the desired effect, would it?